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Bollinger
Bands draw their
power through two important characteristics. First, they exhibit an
underlying trend-range axis just like price or moving averages. Second,
they constrict or expand as they move. The interaction between these
two forces draws unique patterns as bars unwind through its boundaries.
Candlesticks work especially well with bands. For example, a Doji that
strikes through a constricting band effectively signals a short-term
reversal.
BBs bend and twist in response to price movement. These undulations
predict how far trends should stretch before central tendency forces
them back toward a central axis. Complex relationships develop between
price-band direction and price-band constriction. For example, a trend
tends to pause when constricting bands oppose it. It takes great skill
to predict the bands' ultimate impact on price but is well worth the
effort. More than any other tool, BBs pinpoint hidden swings and
telegraph whether the profit door lies open or closed.
Bands may swing through relative highs or lows and then pull back
into proportional retracement to start another trend thrust. Or they
can enter extended ranges that meander back and forth without
direction. Movement frequently stops dead in its tracks when price
rises into a falling band or drops into a rising one. Sideways bands
can appear in both rangebound and trending markets. Price often fails
to reach new high or low territory until bands expand to clear the
path. In many ways, Bollinger Bands predict time better than they
predict price.
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Buy
Signal: The top Bollinger Band rises toward a test of the intraday high
as Worldcom drops. This sharp divergence signals the eventual breakout
after price finally reverses off of the bottom band. Watch band slope
closely when bars return to test important highs or lows. It often
reveals the time and force needed to push price through a S/R barrier.
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The
skilled eye watches constricted
bands in real-time to estimate the buying or selling force required to
push them out of the way. They work extremely well during the second
test of an important high or low. When markets finally break out,
expanding bars often shoot into the band's edge where congestion forms
a flag until the BB allows further movement. Bands constrict tightly
around narrowing price in sideways markets. Apply NR7 methodology here
to anticipate an impending positive feedback event.
Bollinger Bands signal early warning of trend change. Sharp price
movement forces bands to expand outward. When these active markets
finally turn sideways, the bands slowly tighten and roll toward price.
Time passes and the BB door closes on rapid vertical movement.
Experience enables the swing trader to quickly estimate the time
required before bands will tighten and plan accordingly.
Strong buying or selling may push price well outside a band. A tall
bar can even print completely through the barrier in extreme
conditions. General tactics suggest that violent reversals often follow
these major band violations. But trading against these events carries
risk since markets can print a short series of these volatile bars
before the reversal takes place. Also note that this price action
rarely occurs during intraday markets, except at the open.
Reduce risk by dropping down to the next lower time frame and
waiting for a reversal there before executing a countertrend position.
Odds also improve if the thrusting bars run into other forms of S/R
that allow cross-verification for the entry level. Stay defensive
during the trade. Once price returns within the band's limits, the
underlying trend can reappear quickly unless the pullback generates
other reversal signals. Look for Dark Cloud Cover or a similar candle
pattern that fills any gap created by the bar outside the band. This
complex setup can produce windfall profits if managed properly.
Swing traders work the quiet middle ground of Bollinger Bands for
consistent profits. Build strategies that enter countertrend positions
at one band and exit at the other. These swing setups face far less
whipsaws than breakout entries at band extremes. Keep in mind that the
center band presents a natural profit obstacle that needs special
consideration when calculating reward: risk. Make sure a safe exit near
this center point still produces a decent profit for the trade.
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Multiple
Support-Resistance: A broad range sets up profitable swing conditions
for KLA-Tencor. This 13-bar Bollinger Band combines with simple
horizontal S/R to uncover natural reversal zones at band extremes.
Enter a countertrend position when the prior bar prints a candlestick
reversal outside the band line. Wait for a break of the center band if
no clear signal arises. Exit if price does not expand quickly in the
other direction or if the signal fails and the candle shadow gets taken
out. Watch S/R closely for positive feedback that will eventually carry
price out of the sideways market.
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Use
multi time frame Bollinger Bands to
avoid expensive trend relativity errors. Look at the same market
through 3 different time frames. This corresponds to one above and one
below the chart that aligns with the holding period. Each setting
produces a different range of band extremes and relative price location
within the indicators. Match reward: risk to the central time frame but
observe all intervening S/R on the other charts. Consider whether the
holding period allows enough time to mount barriers and reach targets
at other band levels.
Keep in mind that all bands change dynamically in response to
price. This allows continuous feedback that shifts target values with
each bar. Experience with this powerful indicator helps swing traders
anticipate how it will move. The longer that price travels sideways,
the tighter the bands become. Trend change for the bands themselves
first begins with a turn by the band closest to the prior price trend.
For example, when an uptrend prints along a top band, expect this side
of the indicator to turn down before its twin when price moves into a
range or downtrend.
Combine Bollinger Band study with momentum-based indicators. This
helps filter directional movement from rangebound markets and improves
trade timing. Add MA Ribbons to price and display the MACD Histogram
across the lower pane. Price often remains well within band
constriction during the early phases of new positive feedback events.
As these indicators show rising momentum, shift attention to natural
pattern/band breakout levels and look for entry within narrowing bars.
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