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Position Sizing By Michael R. Bryant
Position sizing is particularly important when leverage is involved, as with futures trading. If you trade too many futures contracts, a string of losses could force you to stop trading. In fact, with the built-in leverage of futures, you could lose more money than you have in your account. On the other hand, if you trade too few contracts, much of your account equity will sit idle, which will hurt your performance. Finding the right balance is a key element of risk management.
There are many different ways to vary the number of contracts or shares when trading. Some of the most commonly used methods, plus one variation on the fixed ratio method, are listed below.
With each of these methods, except for fixed contract position sizing, the number of contracts or shares increases as profits accrue and decreases as the equity drops during a drawdown. Position sizing methods that use this approach are known as antimartingale methods. Antimartingale methods take advantage of the positive expectancy of a winning trading system or method. If you have an "edge" with your trading (i.e., your trading method is inherently profitable), you should use an antimartingale method, such as those listed above.
The alternatives, known as martingale methods, decrease the amount at risk after a win and increase the amount at risk after a loss. A commonly used example is "doubling down" after a loss in gambling. Martingale methods are most often used by gamblers, who trade against the house's advantage. Provided you have a profitable trading method, antimartingale methods are always preferable over the long run because they're capable of growing your trading account geometrically. However, it's sometimes possible to lower your risk by taking advantage of patterns of wins and losses, similar to martingale methods. Two ways to do this are via dependency rules and using equity curve trading. Both of these methods can be used in addition to whichever position sizing method you choose.
While martingale methods are not recommended, these adjustments to the antimartingale methods listed above can sometimes prove beneficial. For example, if your trading system or method tends to have long winning and losing streaks, it might be beneficial to skip trading after a loss until the first skipped trade would have been a winner. Resume taking the signals until a loss is encountered. This is an example of a dependency rule for systems with positive dependency. Alternatively, you might try trading the equity curve. For example, you could stop taking the trading signals when the moving average of the equity curve crosses below the equity curve line. Resume trading when the moving average crosses back above the equity curve.
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